HSBC · HSBC Holdings, plc.

Not today. HSBC is not on today's radar: no tight base just under a resistance that has been tested again and again.

Bulls: Q3 2026 profit before tax surged 32% YoY to $9.6bn (or $9.63B), helped by higher interest income and fewer bad loans; excluding last year's $1.4bn legal hit and other one-offs, profit still rose 10%. Return on tangible equity is running at 18.8% year-to-date, above HSBC's own target, and the bank announced a share buyback of up to $1B while guiding to banking NII of at least $46B in 2026. The franchise manages $3.4tn in assets, trades at ~13x P/E with a ~4.1% dividend yield, low debt-to-assets (~0.17) and a declining share count. Technically, HSBC has broken below its EMA200 21 times in five years and recovered 20 times, on average in about 5 trading days (median 1.5), with the 10/23 break and an intraday dip to ~84.89 framed as an opportunity.

Bears: Q3 revenue was $18.6B versus $19B expected (est. $18.93B) and pretax profit of $9.63B missed the $9.70B estimate, with wealth revenue flat at $2.7B. In the first nine months of 2026 the CET1 ratio fell 100bp from 14.9% to 13.9% — below the 14%–14.5% target range — RWA rose $34B, the SLR declined from 5.3% to 4.9% and the LCR dropped from 137% to 132%, raising doubts about sustaining $1bn buybacks. Shares fell 5.7% on the day (worst since October 2025, about $18B of market value lost), were down another ~7% premarket to the $85 area, fell about 6% in Hong Kong on Oct. 27 and are down roughly 15.8% over 30 days from ~$100.95, as depositors shift into higher-rate products and pressure margins.

Reading from Oct 28, 2026; each post classified by AI, weighted by engagement.

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Open-market trades only, from SEC Form 4 filings — option exercises, tax withholding and grants are left out.

• Sold · Palomaki Daniel Scott$419K · May 7, 2026
• Bought · Bingham Jonathan$205 · Mar 27, 2026